2019年1月10日
半工业战略研讨会（ISS）于昨天开放，主题是“半导体的黄金时代：实现下一届工业革命”。每年为期三天的C级高管会议提供了全球电子制造业的首个全面展望。
For ISS 2019’s nearly 300 attendees, opening day highlighted market and technology opportunities and the high-water mark for semiconductor manufacturing supply chain investments in 2018. Deep discussions on applications, disruptions and Industrial Revolution 4.0 will mark today, Day 2. Day 3 will feature presentations on industry workforce development and the evolving U.S.-China relationship and convene an expert panel on “The Next Semiconductor Revolution: Filling the Gap Between Smart Speakers and Autonomous Vehicles” to culminate SEMI’s business leader annual kick-off event.
Opening主题演讲者Ann Kellehere，英特尔技术与制造集团的高级副总裁兼总经理，观察到数据正在为第四行业革命和计算市场的扩展提供动力。出色的客户体验和新技术，包括物联网（IoT），人工智能（AI）和自动驾驶汽车，是数据增长的主要驱动力。
Today, fabs collect more than 5 billion sensor data points each day. The challenge, Kellehere noted, is to turn massive amounts of data into valuable information. With customers expecting continual improvements in applications, the question is whether the chip industry is moving fast enough to meet these expectations. A broad supply chain, equipment and materials innovations, and attracting the “best of the best” college graduates to fuel innovation is key, she said.
在里面经济趋势会议，演示者采用了宏观经济趋势和详细的特定行业预测：
哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院大使（ret。）尼古拉斯·伯恩斯（Nicholas Burns），noted the United States is trailing China in a battle for technological supremacy. By 2050, Indo-Pacific could become the world’s locus of economic power, potentially leading to conflict and instability. The rise of nationalism in China, India, Japan, Russia and the U.S. is a major trend, and the power gap between the U.S. and China, Russia and India is narrowing. From 1979 through last, China and the U.S. came together to solve big problems, he noted. The world has shifted ominously from strategic engagement to outright strategic competition.
邓肯·梅尔德鲁姆（Duncan Meldrum），山顶经济学，指出，世界已经超过了当前的经济扩张的高峰，GDP在2018年达到峰值，并逐渐放缓至2.7％的趋势增长。共识前景是全球经济增长的强劲增长。虽然另一种看法认为将发展全球衰退，但预计并不是要进行深层增长衰退。当今的问题是，全球经济不确定性处于历史最高水平，抑制了投资和增长。
Bob Johnson, Gartner,forecasts businesses will get $5 trillion of value from AI by 2025 as businesses explore ways to implement AI to tap its tremendous potential. AI, IoT and 5G are major enablers of new value, with market demand shifting from consumer to commercial applications offering higher returns on investments, Johnson said. Future semiconductor market drivers include augmented analytics, digital twins, AI, autonomous things, blockchain, smart spaces and quantum computing.
Andrea Lati，VLSI研究，expects the semiconductor slowdown to continue into the first half of 2019 and said it could face a decline of as much as 35 percent. The strategic question for industry leaders is how to transition from a commodity provider to a value provider. In 2019, both semiconductor equipment and assembly sales are forecast to drop 13 percent, ending equipment’s strong run since 2016.
Michael Corbett, Linx Consulting,为材料行业提供了乐观的前景，它正在与MSI成为关键驱动力和创纪录的资本欧洲杯足球竞彩支出水平的创纪录扩展，这反映了200mm和300mm的利用率很高。欧洲杯足球竞彩材料市场的趋势包括2017年至2022年的晶圆厂材料CAGR的CAGR CAGR为6.9％，2018年的行业增长率为260亿美元，至2022年的330亿美元。
The afternoon session focused on市场观点，包括智能制造，人类健康，AI和5G。
Sujeet Chand，Rockwell Automation，概述了半导体生产的智能制造最佳实践。他设想大数据越来越多地由基于目标工厂结果构建的数据代替，这些数据决定是否在边缘还是在云中运行分析。他说，随着信息和操作技术的融合以加快半导体晶圆厂和供应网络的优化，由数字化驱动的半导体生产率将比过去50年增长快。
Igor Fisch, Selexis,专注于当前半导体黄金时代如何塑造人类健康。他指出，芯片在生物技术中的重要性至关重要，因为大数据成为将引起个性化诊断和疗法的分析的关键。药物发现和开发将依靠大规模的计算能力和数据存储，并使用半导体和超级计算机技术的精确医学的关键推动剂。
埃里克·琼斯（Eric Jones）指出，半导体制造商必须在接下来的十年中重新想象自己的数字化转型。他说，数据整合，自动化和仿真将使AI和机器学习的预测能力（是数字化转型的关键）。但是，最大的挑战是与不断变化的公司文化，哲学和组织设计有关。
Sree Koratala，爱立信，预测5G将从初始用例转变为2024年的主流采用。连接性已达到拐点，重点从消费者转移到企业，包括虚拟和增强现实（AR/VR）的沉浸式体验（AR/VR），自主控制和云机器人机器人技术。她指出，4G和5G将共存，对人和企业产生更大的影响。
莎拉·库珀（Sarah Cooper），亚马逊网络服务，highlighting IoT trends, offered a vision of products learning from collected data to personalize functionality. Product differentiation is not about the specifications but about the customer experience. Coupling device data with machine learning can create a product that adapts to changing customer needs, eliminating the need to develop separate SKUs, she noted.
ISS的第2天和第3天将通过以下方式深入研究该行业。东京电子有限公司，Xperi，Micron Technology，Google，应用材料，麦肯锡公司，欧洲杯足球竞彩啤酒科学，DECA Technologies，Carbon，A欧洲杯线上买球merica Merrill Lynch和Semi。
半工业战略研讨会（ISS）研究了影响全球电子制造业的全球经济，技术，市场，商业和地理政治发展及其对战略业务决策的影响。35年来，ISS一直是高级管理人员的首要半导体会议，旨在获得最新的趋势数据，技术重点和行业观点，以支持业务决策，客户策略和追求更高的盈利能力。
Source:https://www.semi.org/en/