A group of researchers has published a paper in the journalPLoSOne, which proposes a model based on ideas formed using Markov chains in order to monitor and mitigate microparticles emitted from tires.
Study:马尔可夫城市规模的建模和减轻轮胎的微粒子。欧洲杯猜球平台Image Credit: Nitiphonphat/Shutterstock.com
Electric vehicles (EVs) are a figurehead of the global energy transition as the transport sector alone contributes to around 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions. While EVs alone can’t achieve the energy transition as part of a system, they will. However, EVs are often much heavier and have increased torque capabilities due to the weight of the batteries which generates other concerns surrounding emissions from tire wear.
“在汽车工程背景下，该主题相对未开发和未知（由公众）非常令人惊讶,”都柏林UCD的控制工程和决策科学的Roman Overko Phd研究员说。欧洲杯线上买球
Evolution of recent vehicle emissions narrative, and emerging non-tailpipe emissions concerns. Image Credit: Singer G et al., PLoS ONE
Particulate Matter
Particular matter (PM) is a term that typically refers to a type of pollutant consisting of a complex mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air. Some particles such as dirt, dust, soot, or smoke can be seen with the eye, whereas others are so small they can only be detected using an electron microscope.
Tires on vehicles are typically manufactured from materials that derive from fossil fuels, and as these tires on vehicles wear, they start to emit particulate matter. The increased weight and torque of EVs mean that they often emit more tire PM than conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
While a lot is known about tire PM and the emissions that vehicle tires can generate the impact on human health and the environment is still not fully understood and given the rate in which tires wear and contribute to PM this seems a surprising detail. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) the daily maximum safe level on average is 25μg/m3, while the annual maximum permitted levels average 10μg/m3。For下午10, the maximum levels permitted are around 50μg/m3and 20μg/m3on a daily and annual basis, respectively.
“与PM有关的一些已知健康作用包括氧化应激，炎症和早期动脉粥样硬化。其他研究表明，较小的颗粒可能进入血液，从而转移到肝脏，肾脏或大脑中，”欧洲杯猜球平台explains Overko. Therefore, it seems sensible to acquire further data for modeling and developing strategies to help tackle this invisible issue.
在整个网络中，具有不同速度限制的简单网络的排放分布，即20、40和60 km/h。Image Credit: Singer G et al., PLoS ONE
Markov Chains
A Markov Chain is a stochastic model that describes a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Markov chains can be applied as statistical models of real-world processes including studying systems in motor vehicles and traffic systems.
研究人员之所以使用马尔可夫模型，是因为它们特别适合流量系统，因为它们与图形的密切关联，而且由于他们提供了优于交通模拟程序的优势，原因是三个主要原因：首先，马尔可夫模型可在有效的效率上提供对预测的访问权限。方式，特别是与基于蒙特卡洛的相反，基于车辆模拟器的方法。
Secondly, in response to the previous point, the parameters of mathematical models can be easily modified to evaluate traffic management strategies, without the need for ensembles of complex simulations. Finally, by developing a Markovian (transition matrix) approach to traffic modeling, there is a significant advantage in drawing from a suite of analytics that has been developed to analyze Markovian systems over the past century.
然后，该团队采用了马尔可夫模型，并将其应用于轮胎排放量，以开发本文中详细介绍的轮胎污染模型。通过分析许多因素，例如车速，加速和制动，他们能够提出一种收集有关轮胎PM排放的关键信息的方法。
Kemeny constants for the simple network with different speed limits in the entire network. Image Credit: Singer G et al., PLoS ONE
Building Future Strategies
By developing city-scale models of tire pollution, both airborne and non-airborne, the researchers could generate key data that could help shape future policy that protects the environment and human health.
Building future strategies that mitigate the impact of tire wear and PM pollution is crucial in the context of the energy transition and shift from ICE vehicles to EVs and could also help tire manufacturers consider alternative materials and develop new fabrication methods.
此外，这项研究还表明，对环境和人类健康的关注是复杂系统的一部分，在该系统中，需要考虑对现有技术的所有变化和修改。
参考
Singer G, Overko R, Yilmaz S, Crisostomi E, Shorten R (2021) Markovian city-scale modelling and mitigation of micro-particles from tires. PLoS ONE 16(12): e0260226.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0260226
Baensch-Baltruschat B.，Kocher B.，Stock F.和Reifferscheid G.，“轮胎和道路磨损颗粒（TRWP） - 对环欧洲杯猜球平台境中的发电，财产，排放，人类健康风险，生态毒性和命运的评论”, Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 733, 2020. pmid:32422457
World health organization, Ambient Outdoor Pollutionhttps://www.who.int/
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